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Fitch Solutions is forecasting robust economic growth for Ghana in 2026, predicting that the country will outperform many of its emerging-market peers. The UK-based research and risk-analysis firm attributes its optimistic outlook to Ghana’s solid macroeconomic performance in 2025, with expectations that the momentum will carry into the next year.
Speaking at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) post-budget forum held on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, in Accra, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, Mike Kruiniger, described Ghana’s growth trajectory as “particularly impressive.”
“We see the 2026 budget as broadly supportive of growth, and this aligns with our forecast that Ghana’s real GDP growth will rise from an already strong 5.8% in 2025 to 5.9% in 2026,” Kruiniger said. He noted that continued economic expansion will be driven primarily by private consumption and a sustained recovery in fixed investment, which is rebounding from the sharp contraction recorded in 2023.
Looking beyond next year, Kruiniger said medium-term growth is expected to remain healthy at around 5%, supported by expanding domestic demand. He emphasized that Ghana’s growth projections are strong not only relative to its own historical performance but also when compared to global peers. According to Fitch Solutions, Ghana is set to outpace several major emerging markets in 2026, including mainland China, Indonesia, and Kenya.
“Overall, Ghana’s growth story in 2026 will be one of outperformance,” he reiterated.
Security Risks Could Temper Outlook
Despite the positive projections, Kruiniger warned that the escalating Islamist insurgency in the Sahel poses a significant risk to Ghana’s economic outlook heading into 2026. Persistent instability in the region, he explained, could spill over into Ghana, affecting the investment climate, fiscal stability, and broader macroeconomic conditions.
He noted that Ghana might be forced to increase military spending to protect its borders and safeguard economic gains.
“So far, Ghana has been relatively shielded from violent spillovers compared to other coastal West African states—Benin, for example,” Kruiniger said. “This resilience is partly due to the northern terrain, which is far less forested than in Benin or Côte d’Ivoire, making it harder for Sahel-based militants to operate undetected.”
He added that strong state control in northern Ghana has also served as a buffer. However, with Islamist groups gaining ground in the Sahel—especially in Mali—the risks to Ghana are rising.
“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks. But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
