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By Isaac Mortey
In the high-stakes world of football, the manager is often the central figure. They are hailed as geniuses with a trophy lift and branded as failures after a string of poor results. Clubs routinely make a change in the dugout when performance dips, believing a new leader is the key to unlocking success.
A growing body of evidence suggests the manager’s direct impact on results may be less than we think, raising serious questions about why they remain the constant scapegoat.
The Evidence for a Limited Impact
Analysis of team performance over time reveals a surprising pattern. Studies tracking clubs across multiple manager changes show that results often stay remarkably consistent. A team’s underlying numbers like expected goals for and against frequently do not see a major shift with a new appointment.
This points to a stronger influence from factors largely outside a manager’s control. The quality of the playing squad, determined by years of recruitment and a club’s financial power, is the most significant driver of success. A manager cannot make a mid-table squad consistently compete for titles, no matter their tactical brilliance. Injuries to key players, the inherent randomness of individual moments in a match, and the strength of the competition also play massive roles.
In essence, a manager is often working within tight boundaries set by the club’s structure and resources.
Why, Then, Are They The First to Blame?
If their influence is constrained, why does the pressure fall so heavily on them? Several reasons explain this cycle.
First, the manager is the most visible symbol of the club. They are the one facing the media, making the substitutions, and pacing the touchline. Changing the manager is a clear, single action a club can take to show fans and owners they are “doing something” in response to failure. It is simpler and often cheaper than overhauling an entire playing squad or addressing deeper structural issues.
Second, football thrives on narrative. We love the story of the inspirational leader transforming a team. This belief in a single visionary is deeply ingrained in the sport’s culture, even if reality is more complex. When things go wrong, it fits the same story to remove that central character.
Finally, the manager is an easy target. Blaming players can disrupt squad harmony. Blaming owners or directors is politically difficult. The manager sits in the middle, absorbing pressure from all sides, making their position the most fragile.
What Does a Manager Actually Control?
This is not to say managers are irrelevant. Their true value lies in specific areas. creating a cohesive and motivated team environment, making smart tactical adjustments within games, and improving individual players through coaching. A great manager might gain a team a few extra points a season, the difference between European qualification or not, or survival and relegation. This marginal gain is valuable.
However, their primary role may be one of optimization, not miracle working. They are the stewards of the potential already present in the squad.
A Call for a New Perspective
Clubs and fans needs to rethink their approach. Constant manager turnover is disruptive, expensive, and often solves little if the core issues remain. Success is more likely built through long-term strategy, smart, consistent recruitment, strong youth development, and creating a stable club culture.
The next time a team struggles, the question should perhaps shift from “Who should we sack?” to “What is actually holding us back?” The manager is one piece of a much larger puzzle. Making them the scapegoat ignores the complex reality of building a winning football team. Perhaps it is time to judge them more fairly, on the factors they can truly control, and hold others in the club structure equally accountable for success or failure.
