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Government has revised its projected petroleum revenue for 2026 upward to approximately $1.5 billion, citing higher-than-anticipated crude oil prices on the international market.
The new forecast represents a significant increase from the estimated $1 billion contained in the 2026 Budget and comes amid a sustained rise in global oil prices, largely driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, disclosed the revised outlook in an interview with Bloomberg, noting that Ghana is expected to benefit from stronger export earnings as an oil-producing nation.
“We estimated approximately one billion United States dollars from oil revenue this year, going to the Heritage Fund, Stabilisation Fund and Annual Budget Funding Amount,” he said.
“But that has been revised since, and we expect that instead of a billion, we’ll be expecting about one and a half billion, for example.”
According to the Finance Minister, the upward revision reflects the difference between the oil price benchmark used in preparing the budget and prevailing prices on the global market.
“When we prepared the 2026 Budget, we assumed an oil price of about $70 per barrel. Today, it is trading above $90, and so there is obviously an increase,” Dr. Forson explained.
He noted that although higher crude oil prices can create challenges for many economies, Ghana stands to benefit through increased foreign exchange earnings from its oil exports.
“Since we are also an exporter of oil, the country benefits from the higher prices as well,” he stated.
Dr. Forson further indicated that Ghana’s fiscal position would remain relatively secure even if global oil prices fall following a resolution of tensions in the Middle East, as government’s projections were based on a much lower price benchmark.
“The good news is that because we programmed for an oil price of between $70 and $74, a peace agreement that brings prices back to that level would still be to our advantage because we never anticipated prices rising to $90 or $100,” he said.
The revised petroleum revenue outlook is expected to be reflected in the government’s Mid-Year Budget Review, scheduled to be presented to Parliament in July.
The projected increase in oil revenue is expected to provide additional fiscal space for government spending while strengthening foreign exchange inflows and supporting overall economic stability.