IMF Reaches Staff-Level Agreement with Ghana on First PCI Review

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reached a staff-level agreement with Ghana on the first review of the country’s 36-month programme under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), marking progress in efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability and advance fiscal reforms.

The agreement follows discussions between an IMF team led by Ruben Atoyan and Ghanaian authorities during a visit to Accra from October 22 to November 4, 2026.

However, the agreement remains subject to approval by IMF Management and the Fund’s Executive Board.

In its end-of-mission statement, the IMF described Ghana’s economic performance as resilient, pointing to strong economic growth, relatively low inflation and improvements in the country’s fiscal position.

The Fund reported that real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.2 per cent year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with full-year growth projected at 5.7 per cent.

Inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October, remaining below the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target range of 6 to 10 per cent.

The IMF also said the fiscal position remained strong, with the primary surplus expected to meet the programme’s end-year target. Public debt has also recorded a significant decline in recent years.

Reserve pressures remain a major concern

Despite the improved economic outlook, the IMF identified pressure on foreign exchange reserves as a major vulnerability.

According to the Fund, the decline in reserves in recent months has prompted the authorities to introduce corrective measures. These include transferring foreign exchange intermediation responsibilities from the Bank of Ghana to GoldBod and enforcing higher gold sale requirements for large-scale mining companies.

The IMF stressed that consistent implementation of these measures, alongside greater exchange rate flexibility, would be essential to rebuilding reserves.

It also warned that Ghana remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international gold, cocoa and oil prices, geopolitical tensions and tighter global financial conditions.

Other domestic risks include significant domestic debt refinancing requirements, fiscal pressures from the energy, cocoa and gold sectors, as well as lingering weaknesses in the financial sector.

2027 Budget targets 0.5% primary surplus

On fiscal policy, the IMF said the government’s 2027 Budget is consistent with the programme’s objectives and targets a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP on a commitment basis.

The target builds on fiscal consolidation achieved in recent years and is expected to create room for priority investments under the government’s New Economy agenda, particularly in job creation and infrastructure development.

However, the Fund emphasised the importance of thorough project appraisal, competitive procurement processes and strict expenditure controls to ensure value for money and safeguard debt sustainability.

It also expects non-oil revenue to increase further in 2027, supported by tax measures approved in July 2026, reforms to customs and excise legislation, and improvements in revenue administration.

Structural reforms largely on track

The IMF described progress on structural reforms as broadly satisfactory.

It highlighted the publication of the Fiscal Strategy Document, parliamentary approval of the new Cocoa Board Act and the continuation of quarterly electricity tariff adjustments.

The authorities have also completed a comprehensive review of customs and excise legislation ahead of schedule.

However, the Fund noted that work is still ongoing on several reforms, including the Bank of Ghana’s liquidity management framework, the Integrated Tax Administration System, the operationalisation of the Fiscal Council and the preparation of the Fiscal Risk Statement.

It also identified the delayed publication of the audit of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s (ECG) collection accounts as an outstanding commitment.

The IMF stressed that maintaining the pace of reforms, rebuilding foreign exchange reserves and strengthening fiscal discipline would be crucial to protecting Ghana’s recent economic gains and supporting stronger, more inclusive and job-rich growth.